Israel's Occupation Army: A Strategic Dilemma

 

Israel has made numerous pronouncements, boasting and threatening, setting goals to obliterate Hamas, eliminate it militarily and politically, capture its leaders, and recover prisoners. After nine months of ongoing war, Netanyahu insisted that the battle for Rafah would be a turning point on the path to achieving a complete Israeli victory, ending Hamas's rule over the Gaza Strip.

However, beyond Netanyahu and some of his government leaders, statements from military commanders and commentators have revealed a different reality. On the ground, none of Israel's war objectives have been achieved. This has placed the occupation's political and military leaders in a perilous strategic predicament.

The question arises: What has the occupation army been doing for the past nine months if it has failed to achieve any of its war aims, despite American support and military capabilities that have almost destroyed the Gaza Strip but failed to eliminate Hamas?

The reality is that the occupation army has only achieved tactical gains during these months, perhaps weakening the resistance's fighting units, but not leading to the elimination, dismantling, or disarmament of Hamas. On the contrary, the movement has returned to all areas from which it previously withdrew, and the army has withdrawn from areas it had penetrated due to the escalation of resistance operations, which have inflicted further losses and highlighted the shortage of combat forces capable of controlling the ground.

Israeli forces are also exhausted and fatigued due to the war's duration, and there is a significant shortage of equipment and ammunition, despite extensive American and Western support. The situation has been further complicated by the multiple fronts on which Israel is engaged, and the atmosphere of political and military division surrounding the future vision.

In contrast, the US War Institute indicates that Hamas is rebuilding its political and military strength. This is undeniable, as the war has not ended and may continue for some time. This is driving Hamas to re-form its forces in all areas from which the Israeli army has withdrawn, taking into account available military capabilities and field developments.

Hamas is currently focusing on three key points:

Continuing combat, political, and administrative operations, albeit at a slower pace than before. This is a crucial step in regaining control of the turbulent situation.

Reorganizing infrastructure and manufacturing, including redistributing available resources to strengthen units damaged by military operations.

Undertaking recruitment efforts among young people to re-form combat and administrative units.

A Systematic Retreat

Let's review some statements and assessments that reveal the other side of the Israeli narrative, highlighting the significant retreat from the war objectives declared at its outset, the prevailing atmosphere of despair and uncertainty, and the disappearance of the enthusiastic opinion that military pressure would achieve the goals and resolve the matter.